Prospect of the flint chemical industry in the nex

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Prospects for the petrochemical industry in the coming year

standing at the threshold of WTO, 2002 will be the first year for China's petrochemical industry. So, what will be the opening year of Sinopec? At present, some experts assert that the growth momentum of the oil exploitation industry will slow down in 2002, and the petrochemical industry will fall into a low profit Valley in this year or even for a long period of time. It may even be difficult to reverse the current loss situation

1. Policy aspect

according to existing expectations, during the five-year transition period after China's accession to the WTO, policies and regulations related to the petrochemical industry will be in line with international practices according to its promised opening-up schedule. Sinopec officials said that there should be no changes in policies and regulations related to the petrochemical industry this year. However, liutienan, director of the Industrial Development Department of the State Development Planning Commission, disclosed that the government will reform the petrochemical management system. For example, the project approval system will be adjusted

2. The year of assets restructuring of the three major petrochemical companies it is estimated that in the early stage of China's entry into WTO, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC will re-examine their asset layout. While promoting their asset restructuring, it is possible to reconsider asset restructuring such as asset exchange and asset merger among the three major companies according to the needs of international competition, so as to achieve a high concentration of the petrochemical industry. It is expected that in a short time, Enhance the international competitiveness of the domestic petrochemical industry as soon as possible

3. The first year of China's entry into WTO, that is, 2002, is the year when small and medium-sized chemical enterprises will die or die. China's chemical industry is expected to feel the unprecedented pressure of China's entry into WTO. Sinopec is basically supported under the industrial policy system focusing on protection and support. Although it has certain advantages, However, it does not have the conditions to directly participate in international competition "The new generation 1 engine needs to be able to withstand the continuous high temperature pressure. China's chemical industry imports have always been high. After China's accession to the WTO, with the reduction of tariffs and the increase of imports, it will directly affect the survival and development of domestic chemical enterprises. For example, PVC, which is limited by the process route in China, has a high production cost and sells at a price of yuan/ton per ton. At present, similar foreign products are only sold at a price of USD/ton. At present, the tariff of this product is 30%. If the tariff is reduced To 10%, there will be a decrease of about 500 yuan, and the impact is self-evident. In the past, we used to restrict imports by means of import substitution and foreign exchange verification. However, under the background of China's formal accession to the WTO, domestic and foreign enterprises of this kind of products are not at the same level in terms of price or quality, and a number of enterprises will face the crisis of being washed out

after China's accession to the WTO, developed countries and surrounding regions may pass on the crisis of product surplus (for example, the petrochemical industry in Taiwan may be transferred to the mainland on a large scale with the deregulation of the policies of the Taiwan authorities), thus aggravating the surplus in the domestic chemical market, leading to an unprecedented decline in prices. In the short term, domestic prices may even be lower than the international market, and some domestic enterprises will be unable to sustain their products due to poor sales and backlog, Some enterprises may go bankrupt or be merged

4. The oil price continues to be depressed

recently, the oil price has been hovering at a low price, and the international oil price has reached a new low in the past decade. Economists believe that it is difficult for OPEC to reach the target price of $22 to $28. This can be seen from today's talk about the use steps of the metallographic microscope and the calibration steps of the equipment. Recently, non member countries have been struggling to reach an agreement. OPEC's regulation of the global oil market is getting worse and worse. At present, other economists point out that with the weakness of global demand, oil prices will continue to fall this year. Some experts even predicted that in the first half of this year, enterprises will have a forward-looking half year, and the oil price will drop from the current 7500 square meters per barrel of total buildings in 19 US dollars to 17 US dollars per barrel. They said that this is on the premise that OPEC has achieved a daily production reduction of 1.5 million barrels, otherwise the oil price will be lower. Global energy center analysts believe that by the second half of this year, oil prices will begin to rise

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