Shanghai aluminum maintained range consolidation
aluminum prices continued to oscillate at low levels in the first quarter. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the continuous decline of aluminum prices and environmental protection have led to the reduction and restriction of production by aluminum plants, offsetting the negative expectation of the decline in demand, and also leading to the excess of alumina on the cost side. Electrolytic energy can replace lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries. The lower cost of aluminum makes the profits of aluminum plants repaired to a certain extent, so as to stimulate the subsequent production of capacity. Looking forward to the second quarter, we believe that aluminum prices will maintain a range consolidation trend when the seasonal consumption margin improves
the stage of rapid export growth has passed.
as of the end of March, the domestic social inventory of aluminum (aluminum ingots + aluminum rods) was about 1.8 million tons. Based on the expected progress of the subsequent capacity launch of electrolytic aluminum, the output of electrolytic aluminum in 2019 is expected to be 37.7 million tons. In 2018, the consumption of aluminum was 36.87 million tons, which means that the consumption growth in 2019 can be balanced under 2.25%. We judge that the growth rate of aluminum apparent consumption mainly includes aluminum exports and domestic consumption. In terms of aluminum exports, the high growth in 2019 is difficult to continue. The main reasons are as follows: first, the ratio of domestic and foreign exchange has rebounded, and the profit of aluminum exports has decreased. There is no lack of high growth in aluminum exports last year. Some disguised export models are difficult to repeat this year, and the magnitude of aluminum exports may be greatly discounted; Second, the global macro-economy is under pressure again, with concerns about the growth of overseas aluminum consumption in developed countries such as the United States and Europe, coupled with long-term trade frictions. Although the domestic VAT reduction is conducive to restoring the profits of processing enterprises, it still depends on the terminal demand
domestically, the high growth of new housing construction last year may lead to a rebound in the completed area, driving the back-end consumption of real estate. However, the sharp decline in the newly purchased area of land in February and the decline in the growth rate of new construction area also cast doubt on the sustainability of aluminum consumption in real estate. Automobile and household appliance consumption is pessimistic, and infrastructure will have a bottom, but the overall domestic aluminum consumption is growing at a high speed, and the largest number of graphene patents applied by China has passed
monitor the changes on the consumer side
the supply on the cost side is relatively abundant. Based on the domestic built capacity of nearly 84 million tons of alumina and the operating capacity of 71.41 million tons at the end of March, it can meet the current operating capacity of 36.33 million tons of aluminum. Together with the production of alumina this year, it can also meet the estimated consumption of 38million tons of aluminum this year. At this time, in addition to elastic deformation, the supporting baking anode and commercial capacity are 28.516 million tons, which can also meet the needs of aluminum production. The absolute excess will continue the upstream profits to reduce the operating rate and match the aluminum production demand. The cost of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a downward trend, and the profit will be transferred to the electrolytic aluminum end
for the current aluminum price, 1 Metal material implementing machine;, Due to the split between the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum and the cost, it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain an oscillating trend. It is suggested to focus on interval trading and pay attention to the consumer side variables and the degree of destocking in the second quarter. It is estimated that the main contract fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum (13760, -20.00, -0.15%) in the second quarter is 13200-14200 yuan/ton