The best methanol market is still good

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The methanol market is still good

the methanol market is still good

December 3, 2018

since the beginning of November, the price of methanol has fallen sharply, and the ton price fell by about 700 yuan in the first two weeks. The market fell sharply, causing the industry to pay attention to the future market. At the 2018 methanol work conference and methanol market seminar held in Fuyang last weekend, guzongqin, President of China nitrogenous fertilizer industry association, expressed confidence in the current methanol price of Chinese coatings

guzongqin said: in addition, the material of this part is metal "The recent sharp plunge in the methanol market is mainly due to the impact of international oil prices. Oil prices drive gas prices, and gas prices drive methanol prices. It is impossible for methanol to maintain a high level for a long time. More than 3000 yuan per ton has appeared in history, but it has not been long. Is the current price reasonable? I personally think it has fallen almost. As long as there are no major political events in the world, the oil price will not drop significantly in the near future. Therefore, I am optimistic about the current price of methanol." Alcohol prices are still confident. "

guzongqin said that there are several favorable factors for the future market of methanol

first, the macro-economy is improving, and the boom cycle of the chemical industry is improving

according to the prediction of IMF, the economic growth this year is greater than 3%, and the economic growth next year is 3.7%, which is a high level in recent years, indicating that the world economy is at the peak of the development cycle. The domestic economy also shows a good momentum of development. Although the Sino US trade friction has brought some downward pressure, it is generally stable and positive

Gu zongqin pointed out that the development of China's chemical industry and the national economy are closely related to the normal test state of experimental machines, showing a very good development trend. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the main business income of the chemical industry from January to September this year was 5210.86 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year; The total profit was 321.76 billion yuan, an increase of 24% year-on-year

second, the traditional downstream product market is better

according to the statistics of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the average ex factory price of formaldehyde from January to September this year was 1417 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.4% year on year; The average ex factory price of acetic acid was 4495 yuan/ton, an increase of 69.8% year on year; The average ex factory price of dimethyl ether is 4052 yuan/ton, which interacts with the longer chain to exert expansion force, an increase of 20.2% year-on-year; The average ex factory price of DMF was 5542 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.4% year on year. Traditional downstream enterprises have achieved good economic benefits and played a great supporting role in the price of methanol

third, the methanol fuel market has been expanded

due to the support of some local governments, the use scope and scale of methanol fuel are gradually expanding. In May this year, the nitrogen fertilizer industry association visited Xingtai City, Hebei Province, and found that more than 1000 households in Weixian county were heated by methanol instead of coal, which achieved good results. This year, the local government plans to promote 20000 households and subsidize 4000 yuan per household. At the same time, Weixian county also piloted the use of methanol fuel on 300 urban management, garbage and government official vehicles

guzongqin believes that if methanol makes a breakthrough in residential heating, it will be a large market. Of course, safety, price and government subsidies need to be comprehensively considered

fourth, limiting coal and gas will affect the production capacity. Driven by the new Internet,

although the Ministry of ecological environment issued a public document saying that environmental protection is strictly prohibited "one size fits all", this does not mean that safety and environmental protection are not strictly controlled. Especially in the "2+26" region, the coal chemical industry production limit this winter and next spring is still a probability event

relevant parties predict that China's natural gas gap is still large this winter, the chemical gas supply in Southwest China will be less than last year, and the gas price will also rise. This may lead to the reduction of methanol production this winter and next spring, and will also support the methanol price to remain at a higher price

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